Attainment and Attendance in Horsham

What the national model behind How to Pull the Right Lever says about the district’s secondary schools, within West Sussex and alongside Brighton and Hove. Draft for discussion.

Author
Affiliation

Adam Dennett

Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London

Published

November 2, 2026

WarningDraft for discussion

One of the district documents for Sussex. It sits beneath the West Sussex document, and the district summary compares all of the districts. Every figure comes from published Department for Education data and the national models of How to Pull the Right Lever. Nothing uses pupil-level records. The commentary is written to a common pattern from the figures; read it as a starting point for discussion.

Summary

Horsham’s results are among the strongest of England’s districts, on an intake less disadvantaged than England’s. Its 6 state secondary schools are in Billingshurst, Horsham and Steyning.

  • Overall results: 49.6 in Attainment 8 in 2024/25, 58th of 264 districts in England.
  • Disadvantage: 11.9% of pupils are disadvantaged, against 28.3% nationally.
  • Disadvantaged pupils average 34.6, below the national 37.8 (188th of 264).
  • The gap between disadvantaged pupils and the rest is 17.1 points, the 16th widest of 264.

The other findings:

  • For all pupils, Horsham is 4.3 points above England. The largest pieces in the national model are the level of disadvantage (+1.7) and prior attainment (+1.3). The district’s schools add 0.8 points beyond what the model expects.
  • For disadvantaged pupils it is 1.4 points below England. The largest pieces are West Sussex’s county-wide effect (-1.5) and being in the South East (-1.3), and the schools add 0.6 points beyond what the model expects.
  • No district effect can be found. Once intake, West Sussex’s county effect and the schools themselves are accounted for, nothing is left that all Horsham schools share.
  • 3 of the 6 schools are above expectation over 2021/22 to 2024/25. The strongest is Millais School (+3.0); the weakest Bohunt Horsham (-0.9).
  • Absence was 8.1% in autumn and spring 2025/26 (7.6% a year earlier), against 8.0% for England and 8.1% for West Sussex. Over 2021/22 to 2024/25 its schools ran 0.1 points above what their intakes predict, and Millais School more than a point above.
  • Reduced timetables run at 2.6 times the national rate, and suspensions at 0.6 times (13.6 episodes per 100 pupils, against 21.2). That counts episodes, not pupils: 5.3 pupils per 100 were suspended at least once, about 2.6 times each, against 7.3 per 100 and 2.9 times in England.
  • Disadvantaged groups are small, 15 to 49 pupils a year per school. Every school-level figure for them moves from year to year and should be read over several years.

1 About this analysis

Horsham is a district of West Sussex, not a local authority, and that shapes what can be said:

  • The national models place schools in local authorities. The “local authority effect” in this document is West Sussex’s, shared with every school in the county.
  • What is particular to Horsham shows up in its schools’ own residuals, and in the district test of Section 6.
  • Absence and exclusions are summed over the district’s 6 schools, followed through any change of URN.

The methods are described in full in the East Sussex document.

2 The district’s schools

Horsham’s state-funded secondary schools, coloured by overall absence in 2024/25. Choose another measure from the menu above the map; circle size is the school’s roll. Hover for figures and who runs each school.

Every state-funded secondary school in the district, 2024/25, with the size of its disadvantaged Year 11 group. Ofsted (model) is the rating the model uses, from the last graded inspection before September 2024. Ofsted, latest is the most recent judgement in Ofsted’s data as at 30 September 2026, which is a report card’s achievement and curriculum grades, the quality of education grade for an inspection between September 2024 and November 2025 that gave no overall grade, or otherwise the last graded inspection.
School Town Type Pupils FSM % Disadvantaged in Year 11 Absence % KS2 Att 8 Att 8 disadv. Ofsted (model) Ofsted, latest
Weald School, The Billingshurst Maintained 1784 16.2 48 8.0 4.8 47.1 34.3 Outstanding (Oct 2013) No overall grade (Oct 2024): quality of education Good
Bohunt Horsham Horsham Academy 1121 12.0 15 7.3 6.7 49.4 36.1 Good (Oct 2023) Good (Oct 2023)
Millais School Horsham Maintained 1055 12.8 37 8.7 6.4 51.5 33.7 Good (Sep 2022) Good (Sep 2022)
Tanbridge House School Horsham Maintained 1524 9.7 29 7.0 5.5 54.2 34.1 Outstanding (Jun 2024) Outstanding (Jun 2024)
The Forest School Horsham Maintained 1095 7.4 15 7.8 5.0 46.9 34.2 Good (Mar 2017) Remains Good (Jan 2022, ungraded visit)
Steyning Grammar School Steyning Academy 1944 13.6 49 9.3 3.8 48.6 35.1 Requires Improvement (Apr 2023) Report card (Mar 2026): achievement Expected standard, curriculum and teaching Expected standard

4 of the 6 schools are maintained by West Sussex County Council. The academies are run as follows:

  • Bohunt Horsham, in Bohunt Education Trust;
  • Steyning Grammar School, in Bohunt Education Trust;
Figure 1: Who ran each school in 2024/25, and how far its results sat above or below the national model’s expectation over 2021/22 to 2024/25.

3 How Horsham compares

Horsham against West Sussex, Brighton and Hove and England, 2024/25. Means of school-level figures.
Measure Horsham West Sussex Brighton and Hove England
Attainment 8, all pupils 49.6 46.4 45.5 46.8
Attainment 8, disadvantaged 34.6 33.5 33.9 37.7
Attainment 8, non-disadvantaged 51.7 48.9 49.6 49.9
Disadvantage gap (points) 17.1 15.4 15.7 12.2
Disadvantaged (FSM6) % 11.9 17.1 28.8 28.4
Overall absence % 8.0 8.7 11.3 8.6
Persistent absence % 21.7 23.9 30.6 23.9
Mean KS2 (centred) 5.37 4.26 4.71 4.47
EAL % 6.4 11.0 13.0 18.4
Figure 2: Attainment 8 for disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils in West Sussex’s districts, 2024/25, school means. The gap between the two is printed on each district’s line; Horsham is in bold.

Across the years the model covers, the gap was 18.4 points in 2021/22 and 17.1 in 2024/25. Horsham’s non-disadvantaged pupils were above England’s average in 4 of 4 years, and its disadvantaged pupils in 0.

4 What explains attainment in Horsham

Figure 3: Why average Attainment 8 differs from England’s, by factor, all school-years 2021/22 to 2024/25, for Horsham, West Sussex and Brighton and Hove. Approximate Attainment 8 points; the pieces sum to the total in each panel.
The decomposition for Horsham, in Attainment 8 points. ‘Place’ is West Sussex’s effect plus the South East’s; ‘unexplained’ is what the district’s own schools add beyond everything the model accounts for.
Factor All pupils Disadvantaged Non-disadvantaged
Place (region and local authority) -1.20 -2.79 -1.48
English as an additional language -0.23 -0.62 -0.33
Other model terms -0.06 -0.54 -0.06
Teacher workforce +0.49 +0.03 +0.48
Ofsted rating +0.58 +0.56 +0.58
Absence +0.70 +0.86 +0.62
Unexplained (school residual) +0.80 +0.64 +0.89
Prior attainment (KS2) +1.33 +1.04 +1.47
Disadvantage (% FSM) +1.73 -0.59 +0.87

For all pupils, Horsham is 4.3 points above England. The pieces of at least a quarter of a point:

  • the level of disadvantage (+1.73);
  • prior attainment (+1.33);
  • West Sussex’s county-wide effect (-0.74);
  • absence (+0.70);
  • Ofsted ratings (+0.58);
  • the teacher workforce (+0.49);
  • being in the South East (-0.46);
  • and the district’s schools themselves (+0.80), beyond what the model expects.

For disadvantaged pupils, Horsham is 1.4 points below England. The pieces of at least a quarter of a point:

  • West Sussex’s county-wide effect (-1.47);
  • being in the South East (-1.32);
  • prior attainment (+1.04);
  • absence (+0.86);
  • English as an additional language (-0.62);
  • the level of disadvantage (-0.59);
  • Ofsted ratings (+0.56);
  • admissions (-0.30);
  • and the district’s schools themselves (+0.64), beyond what the model expects.

The level of disadvantage counting against disadvantaged pupils is the Lever report’s most contested finding showing up locally. Across England, disadvantaged pupils do slightly better in schools with more disadvantaged pupils, once everything else is accounted for. The likely reason is that such schools organise around them, and spend pupil premium on provision that a handful of pupils cannot sustain. In Horsham, with 15 to 49 disadvantaged pupils in a year group, that is harder to do.

5 The disadvantaged gap, school by school

Figure 4: Each school’s value added for its disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils, mean over the years available (2021/22 to provisional 2025/26). Above zero means better than the national model expects for similar pupils.

1 of the 6 schools is above expectation for non-disadvantaged pupils and more than a point below it for disadvantaged ones: Tanbridge House School. Millais School and Steyning Grammar School are above expectation for both groups. The table below gives each school’s own persistent effect, from the model with a school term, which is the steadier measure.

Table 1: Each school’s own persistent effect on the national model with a school term (%), for each group of pupils and for absence beyond what its intake predicts. Positive absence is worse.
School All pupils Disadvantaged Non-disadvantaged Absence (stage 1)
Tanbridge House School +1.3 -4.7 +1.9 -15.5
The Forest School -1.2 +1.0 -2.1 +5.5
Millais School +4.8 +6.0 +4.2 +12.1
Weald School, The -2.2 -5.1 -1.7 -10.6
Bohunt Horsham -0.2 +1.4 -0.9 +0.4
Steyning Grammar School +3.3 +6.7 +1.9 +1.7
Table 2: Attainment 8 of each school’s disadvantaged pupils, year by year (2025/26 provisional), with the size of the group in 2024/25. Small groups make single years unreliable.
School 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Disadvantaged pupils, 2024/25
The Forest School 36.3 31.0 40.6 34.2 15
Millais School 40.7 44.1 41.1 33.7 38.9 37
Tanbridge House School 42.5 37.3 32.8 34.1 36.3 29
Weald School, The 32.9 35.0 31.1 34.3 35.5 48
Bohunt Horsham 39.9 36.1 34.9 15
Steyning Grammar School 33.4 35.1 33.1 49

6 Is there a Horsham effect?

The district test of the East Sussex document adds a district level to the national model, with and without each school’s own record.

Table 3: The Horsham district effect, over and above West Sussex’s, with 95% intervals.
Specification Outcome Effect (%) 95% interval Significant
Published specification All pupils +0.7 -2.6 to +4.2 No
Published specification Disadvantaged +0.4 -3.6 to +4.5 No
Published specification Non-disadvantaged +0.7 -2.2 to +3.7 No
Published specification Absence (stage 1) +0.8 -6.1 to +8.3 No
With a school term All pupils +0.4 -2.9 to +3.7 No
With a school term Disadvantaged +0.3 -2.8 to +3.5 No
With a school term Non-disadvantaged +0.5 -2.8 to +4.0 No
With a school term Absence (stage 1) -0.3 -5.9 to +5.7 No

None of Horsham’s district effects can be told apart from zero on either specification. The district’s results are explained by its intake, West Sussex’s county effect and its individual schools.

Figure 5: Each school’s own persistent effect, from the model with a school term: Attainment 8 for all pupils, and absence beyond what its intake predicts.

7 Absence

Figure 6: Overall absence, autumn and spring terms, 2016/17 to 2025/26. Sessions-weighted; 2019/20 not collected.
  • 8.1% absence in autumn and spring 2025/26, against 8.0% for England and 8.1% for West Sussex. A year earlier it was 7.6%.
  • Persistent absence is 20.0%, against 21.6% for England.
  • Against its intake, the district’s schools run 0.06 points above what their pupils’ profiles predict, on average over 2021/22 to 2024/25.
Table 4: Each school’s absence against what its intake predicts, mean 2021/22 to 2024/25, and its reasons in the latest year (percentage of sessions).
School Absence % Predicted by intake % Above prediction Illness Unauthorised Reduced timetable Suspended
Millais School 8.8 7.4 +1.3 4.4 1.4 0.37 0.23
The Forest School 8.6 7.9 +0.7 4.1 1.4 0.41 0.12
Bohunt Horsham 7.8 7.5 +0.3 4.3 0.9 1.18 0.05
Steyning Grammar School 8.9 8.7 +0.2 4.4 2.1 0.51 0.22
Weald School, The 7.9 9.0 -1.1 4.5 1.5 0.53 0.18
Tanbridge House School 6.8 7.8 -1.1 4.0 1.2 1.36 0.10
  • Millais School runs more than a point above its predicted absence.
  • Tanbridge House School and Weald School, The run more than a point below their predictions.

Reduced timetables account for 0.75% of sessions, against 0.29% in England, 2.6 times the national rate. Tanbridge House School’s rate is the highest in the district.

Table 5: Predicted Attainment 8 gain if each school’s absence fell to the national school average (2024/25). Indicative only.
School District Absence % FSM % Gain, all pupils Gain, disadvantaged Gain from FSM to area average
Steyning Grammar School Horsham 9.3 13.6 +0.8 +0.8 +0.3
Millais School Horsham 8.7 12.8 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2
Bohunt Horsham Horsham 7.3 12.0 +0.0 +0.0 +0.0
Weald School, The Horsham 8.0 16.2 +0.0 +0.0 +0.7

2 of the 6 schools are above the national average absence in 2024/25. Bringing them to it would add up to 0.8 points for all pupils, as an indication of scale.

Suspensions were 13.6 episodes per 100 pupils in 2024/25, against 21.2 for England and 16.2 for West Sussex. A rate per 100 pupils counts suspension episodes rather than pupils, and one pupil can be suspended several times in a year, so it is not a percentage of children: 5.3 pupils per 100 were suspended at least once, about 2.6 times each, against 7.3 per 100 and 2.9 times in England.

Table 6: Suspension episodes per 100 pupils, pupils suspended at least once per 100, and permanent exclusions, by school, latest year. One pupil can be suspended more than once, so the first rate runs well above the second.
School Pupils Episodes per 100 Pupils suspended per 100 Permanent exclusions
Steyning Grammar School 1944 18.0 7.6 2
Tanbridge House School 1524 13.9 4.6 2
The Forest School 1095 13.4 5.2 2
Millais School 1055 13.3 6.0 0
Weald School, The 1784 12.7 3.8 1
Bohunt Horsham 1121 7.7 4.5 2

8 Contextual league tables

Value added, all pupils: observed Attainment 8 minus the national model’s expectation. 2025/26 is provisional.
School 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Mean Years
Millais School +5.4 +1.8 +2.9 +1.6 +2.6 +2.9 5
Steyning Grammar School +0.4 +5.0 +2.5 +2.7 3
Tanbridge House School -0.3 +2.3 -0.1 +0.5 +2.6 +1.0 5
The Forest School -0.1 +0.3 -0.8 -2.5 -0.8 4
Weald School, The -0.4 -0.6 -0.0 -3.2 +0.2 -0.8 5
Bohunt Horsham +0.6 -2.8 -3.6 -1.9 3
Value added, disadvantaged pupils. Small groups; read across years.
School 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Mean Years
Steyning Grammar School +2.9 +5.2 +1.8 +3.3 3
Millais School +3.1 +6.7 +6.3 -1.7 +1.9 +3.3 5
The Forest School -0.6 -2.9 +6.5 -0.3 +0.7 4
Bohunt Horsham +3.0 -1.8 -2.8 -0.5 3
Weald School, The -4.9 +0.3 -4.5 -1.6 +0.9 -1.9 5
Tanbridge House School +0.3 -1.4 -5.2 -4.1 -1.4 -2.4 5
Value added, non-disadvantaged pupils.
School 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 Mean Years
Millais School +5.8 +1.6 +2.3 +1.9 +2.7 +2.9 5
Steyning Grammar School -0.2 +4.7 +2.4 +2.3 3
Tanbridge House School +0.7 +3.3 +0.9 +1.3 +3.2 +1.9 5
Weald School, The +1.0 -0.2 +1.0 -2.8 +0.3 -0.1 5
The Forest School -0.0 +0.5 -2.1 -2.6 -1.1 4
Bohunt Horsham +0.2 -3.0 -3.5 -2.1 3

9 Questions for discussion

  1. Disadvantaged pupils. They average 34.6 in Horsham against 37.8 in England, and the district’s schools add 0.6 points for them beyond what the model expects. What do Steyning Grammar School and Millais School, above expectation for these pupils, do that the district’s other schools could share?
  2. Attendance is not the district’s main lever. Absence adds 0.7 points against England, though Millais School runs more absence than its intake predicts.
  3. Schools, not the place. There is no Horsham district effect: the differences that matter are between its schools.
  4. Practice. In Horsham, reduced timetables run at 2.6 times the national rate. These are choices made within schools, and neighbouring districts make them differently.
  5. The county. West Sussex’s own effect for disadvantaged pupils is -3.8% (131st of 151), distinguishable from zero, and it applies to every school here. The county questions in the West Sussex document apply here as well.

Notes on method

Methods and sources are those of the East Sussex document. District membership comes from each school’s postcode (ONS postcode directory, via postcodes.io). Absence and exclusions for the district are summed over its schools, including any predecessor or successor URNs. This document is generated from templates/district_report.qmd by R/20_district_reports.R, from data built by R/17_area_analysis.R, R/18_district_effects.R and R/19_trust_effects.R. Its format is described in AREA_REPORTS.md.